While nothing is quite as exciting as playoff football, it always saddens me to arrive here at Week 18 with the knowledge that after tomorrow, there will be only 13 games left to play. Life just isn’t the same from Mid-February to September. Anyway, let’s get into the picks:
Saturday
Steelers @ Ravens – The Steelers have a couple different scenarios to reach the playoffs, most of which hinge on a victory. I would honestly feel better about this game if Lamar was suiting up, but I’m expecting Ty Huntley to dice up the depleted Steelers secondary and it’s likely that Baltimore tight end Isaiah Likely will be the most impactful pass-catcher in this game featuring poor weather. Expect a lot of running plays on both sides.
Texans @ Colts – This is really just a playoff game, win and in. Ultimately, it’s a coin toss. The Colts won the matchup in Week 3, but that’s a lifetime ago in this league. I’m gonna take the Texans here, giving the slight edge to better QB play from Stroud.
Sunday
Buccaneers @ Panthers – If the Bucs win, they clinch the NFC South title. The Panthers are pretty atrocious, so I’m guessing that the Bucs will take care of business.
Browns @ Bengals – This game is meaningless for both teams. The Browns are sitting Joe Flacco and Myles Garrett, along with other key players, so I’ll give the edge to Cincy.
Vikings @ Lions – While it’s probable that the Lions will remain in the 3 seed even with a win, I expect them to try to win this game.
Jets @ Patriots – 15 straight wins for the Pats in this matchup makes me want to give the edge to them. This game means nothing so probably don’t watch it.
Falcons @ Saints – Both of these teams are still alive for the NFC South title, and they don’t like each other. Expect this one to be hard fought. Slight edge to the Saints because they have a more talented roster.
Jaguars @ Titans – Now, I would love for Jacksonville to lose this game, but I’m not going to bank on that happening. If we see Trevor Lawrence vs Ryan Tannehill as expected, I’m quite sure that the Jags will win. If for some reason the Jags have to play CJ Beathard, the Titans have a much better shot.
Seahawks @ Cardinals – The Seahawks need a win plus a Green Bay loss to sneak into the playoffs. For that reason, I’ll take them in this do-or-die situation. But the Cardinals 4 wins this season have came against teams that currently boast a combined 38 – 26 record. This one could go either way.
Bears @ Packers – Back in Week 1, I picked the Bears over the Packers and it didn’t pan out too well. However, this feels like an entirely different Bears team, so I’ll pick em again.
Chiefs @ Chargers – This is another meaningless game, and the Chiefs are sitting Pat Mahomes. While the offense has looked dysfunctional at times even with Mahomes, it will probably be pretty bad with Blaine Gabbert at the helm. Even so, I’ll give the edge to the Chiefs because the Chargers are sad.
Broncos @ Raiders – Now here’s a game that also means nothing. At least for the teams involved. But for Pittsburgh, there are implications. In a scenario where the Steelers lose, Jacksonville loses, and the Broncos win this game, the Steelers make the playoffs (provided the Colts/Texans game does not end in a tie). But I like the Raiders here so let’s hope that this isn’t the scenario I need to play out.
Eagles @ Giants – The Eagles need to win today for the possibility of getting back to the 2 seed, so I expect them to show their best effort, especially after last week’s loss to Arizona. However, it is entirely possible that Tyrod Taylor dices up the shaky Eagles secondary. Possible, but not likely.
Rams @ Niners – I don’t expect too much from these teams as they’re pretty much locked into their spots. I’ll give the edge to the Niners as they have a deeper roster.
Cowboys @ Commanders – Similar to the Eagles, the Boyz need to win here to ensure they’ll get the 2 seed. Shouldn’t be an issue, as the Commies haven’t won since October 15th.
Bills @ Dolphins – There’s a reason this game was slotted into the Sunday Night window. There’s never been a more “control your own destiny” type of game. For Miami, a win locks up the 2 seed in the AFC while a loss knocks them down to the 6 seed. In January, Miami would much rather play at home than on the road in cold weather. For the Bills, a win would net them the 2 seed, but a loss could mean missing the playoffs entirely if Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both win. The Fins got embarrassed in Baltimore last week, and to add injury to insult, they also lost Bradley Chubb in the final minutes of that game to a torn ACL. Xavien Howard has been ruled out, adding more bad news for the Miami D. Offensively, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both listed as questionable as of right now. The Bills, on the other hand, are relatively healthy. They’ve dominated this matchup over the last few years. Usually the South Florida heat is a huge home field advantage for the Dolphins, but a night game in January is going to feel a lot more like a nice spring day with temperatures in the high 60s at kickoff. Every factor seems to be pointing in the Bills favor here. I picked Buffalo, but I’ll be rooting for Miami.
Last Week
10-6 is mostly fine I guess. The Lions got screwed, the Dolphins got embarrassed, and the Eagles are frauds. Not much to say about the Bucs’ loss really. Of course, I’m not upset about the Steelers beating the Seahawks. Vikings over Packers was more wishful thinking than anything I suppose.
Awful Betting
Well, I went 1-2 last week, a trend we’ve seen many times this season. Record on the year is now 22-29. Very cool. Maybe I can redeem myself this week (probably not):
Money Line: Bears (+130)
Spread: Giants +4.5 (-108)
Point Total: Steelers @ Ravens U34.5 (-115)
Strong Side Sports 