Usually, my unconventional picks are few and far between. I may sprinkle in one or two per week, but let’s face the facts: the favorite wins games in the NFL at a 65-70% clip historically. Now, I’m too lazy to look up more specific stats, but I’m pretty sure that the majority of underdog wins are by teams who are only slight underdogs. I’m thinking maybe we classify that as a FG or less spread? That’s what I’m gonna use because otherwise this week’s picks don’t seem nearly as exciting. Let’s take a look before we go any further:
Underdogs
Packers @ Lions – Now this one isn’t less than a FG (Lions are -3), but any other week I would’ve just took the Lions. They’re really good. But, it feels like the Lions are due to drop a game and with this being a divisional game (plus Thursday night), things might get hairy.
Bears @ Niners – This game is currently Niners -3.5 but with how dismal they’ve been and the Bears getting the interim coach bump? It smells like a Chicago victory is imminent.
Chargers @ Chiefs – If you’ve been around a while you probably know that one of my big rules is don’t bet against Mahomes. It’s especially crazy when the Chiefs are 4 point favorites at home in a divisional game when KC is 34-5 against the AFC West all-time. But I am 1-0 on calling Chiefs losses this year, and this feels like a great spot to get to 2-0. In their first meeting, I’m pretty sure Justin Herbert was a little banged up still. I’m foreseeing a different outcome this time.
Payback Games
Browns @ Steelers – If you’re Pittsburgh, any loss to the Browns is infuriating, but losing twice is blasphemy. Cleveland hasn’t had a series sweep since 1988. I was -10 then. It just can’t happen.
Seahawks @ Cardinals – In another rematch from two weeks ago, we’ve got Seattle headed to the desert to square off against NFC West foe, Arizona. If Seattle were to win, they’d take a commanding 2 game lead (assuming the Rams lose) while being 2-0 against the Cardinals H2H. The Cardinals can’t afford to let this one slip through the cracks.
Will I continue to cook or will I fly too close to the Sun and come crashing back to Earth?
Tap in Tuesday to find out
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